In just a few short days it'll be the 86th Academy Awards, when Hollywood will (mostly) put all of the lobbying and horse-trading behind them and honor the best movies of the prior year. Actually, they'll honor the best movies that had the best marketing campaigns and threw the best parties with the most awesome swag, but that's a discussion for another day. This year we're basically looking at a three film race to take everything:
American Hustle,
Gravity, and
12 Years A Slave. They've cleaned up on the overlong awards drive leading up to this point, and there's little reason to think that will end now. A few surprises could bubble up in the acting categories, though, thanks to Matthew McConaughey who seems especially tough to keep down. The same can't be said for Robert Redford, Emma Thompson, or Tom Hanks, who were expected to be contenders but couldn't quite cross the finish line.
Enough jabbering. Here are my picks for who will win, the dark horse, who should win, and in some cases what was criminally left out of the discussion. Feel free to come back here when all is said and done to mock my wild misfires, of which there usually many.
Best PictureWell, here's where everything will come to a head. A few weeks ago one would have said this was
Gravity or
12 Years a Slave's award to win, but the late release of
American Hustle was a brilliant bit of chess. Ignore those other six movies on the list; they're only here to bump up Blu-Ray sales. The popular theory is that
12 Years a Slave will win here, with Alfonso Cuaron getting his due in the Best Director category. But I say screw that; Cuaron takes both in a shocker.
Who Will Win:
GravityWho Should Win:
12 Years A SlaveThe Dark Horse:
American HustleShoulda Been a Contender:
Short Term 12Best Director What Steve McQueen was able to accomplish with
12 Years a Slave is truly extraordinary, but nothing compares to the groundbreaking technical achievements of Alfonso Cuaron's
Gravity. And let's face it, most people would rather feel like they're in space than at the end of Michael Fassbender's whip. Regardless of who takes it they'll be making history, either as the first African-American or Latino Best Director winner. Again, the only other nominee with any glimmer of hope is David O. Russell for
American Hustle, but that was more of an actors' showcase.
Who Will and Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron,
GravityThe Dark Horse: David O. Russell,
American HustleShoulda Been a Contender: Spike Jonze,
HerBest Actor Wow, no other category is quite as competitive as the Best Actor field, so much so that Tom Hanks, Robert Redford, Joaquin Phoenix, Michael B. Jordan and Oscar Isaac couldn't get in despite many finding them deserving. A few months ago this seemed like a shoe-in for Chiwetel Ejiofor's powerful turn in
12 Years a Slave, but after a string of victories it's looking like Matthew McConaughey may have the edge for
Dallas Buyers Club. Matthew McConaughey, Oscar-winner. Yeah, wrap your head around that one. Still, I think Ejiofor edges him out, but just barely. A lot of love out there for Bruce Dern and
Nebraska but a long career does not a great actor make, in my opinion. Christian Bale's hair and gut were impressive, but
American Hustlebelonged to the ladies. Leonardo DiCaprio dropped a ton of F-Bombs in what I think was his finest performance in a string of great ones, and any other year he would easily take it.
Who Will and Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor,
12 Years a SlaveThe Dark Horse: Bruce Dern,
NebraskaShoulda Been a Contender: Robert Redford,
All is LostBest ActressProbably by default or something, Cate Blanchett seems to be the favorite here for her vastly overrated, modulation-free performance in
Blue Jasmine. Despite the presence of Meryl Streep in the mediocre
August: Osage County, the only one who may stir things up is Amy Adams for
American Hustle. Like Blanchett, she was the best thing about the film she was in, however the difference is that
American Hustle is a good film with a tremendous cast, making Adams' performance all the more impressive.
Blue Jasmine is a subpar effort stashed with stand-up comedians from Woody Allen, who just so happens to be embroiled in an ugly controversy, the kind of controversy that could keep voters from supporting his film.
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett,
Blue JasmineWho Should Win: Amy Adams,
American HustleShoulda Been a Contender: Brie Larson,
Short Term 12Best Supporting ActorIf there's one sure-fire lead pipe lock it's that Jared Leto is walking away with some gold this weekend. He's dominated the award season for his transformative performance in
Dallas Buyers Club, with the only losses coming when he wasn't even nominated, like at the BAFTAs. If Matthew McConaughey can also sure a win it'll be the first time since
Mystic Riverthat Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor victors came from the same movie. There's a lot of love out there for Jonah Hill to get the win he didn't get for
Moneyball, and Barkhad Abdi's debut performance in
Captain Phillips is a great Cinderella story, but neither has a chance this year.
Who Will and Should Win: Jared Leto,
Dallas Buyers ClubThe Dark Horse: Jonah Hill,
The Wolf of Wall StreetShoulda Been a Contender: James Franco,
Spring BreakersBest Supporting ActressDing ding ding! In this corner we have Lupita Nyong'o, the Kenyan beauty who turned heads with her heartbreaking performance in
12 Years a Slave, her first major acting role. And in this corner is the defending champion and Hollywood darling, Jennifer Lawrence, the firecracker of
American Hustle. Really, there are no other contenders in this fight, and the momentum seems to be behind Lawrence after big wins at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs. It's probably hers to lose, but the campaign for Nyong'o has been fierce and persistent. She's been in front of every darn camera on the west coast and attended every awards ceremony big or small, and that definitely has an effect. This one is almost too close to call, but my money is on Lawrence going 2-for-2.
Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence,
American HustleWho Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o,
12 Years a SlaveShoulda Been a Contender: Octavia Spencer or Melonie Diaz,
Fruitvale StationBest Animated FeatureThe world loves legendary animator, Hayao Miyazaki, and his sterling biopic
The Wind Rises has more than enough fans to drown out any detractors, but this is Disney's award to win for the
Frozen. A beloved smash at the box office with a soundtrack that has parents and kids singing "Let it Go" at the top of their lungs,
Frozen would be Disney Animation's first win in this category since...ever. Kind of crazy, huh?
Who Will Win:
FrozenWho Should Win:
The Wind RisesBest Adapted ScreenplayWho Will Win:
12 Years a Slave, John Ridley
Who Should Win:
The Wolf of Wall Street, Terence Winter
The Dark Horse:
Before Midnight, Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
Shoulda Been a Contender:
Short Term 12, Destin Daniel Cretton
Best Original ScreenplayWho Will Win:
American Hustle, Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Who Should Win:
Her, Spike Jonze
Best Foreign Language FilmWho Will Win:
The Broken Circle BreakdownWho Should Win:
The HuntShoulda Been a Contender:
The PastBest Documentary FeatureWho Will Win:
The SquareWho Should win:
The Act of KillingShoulda Been a Contender:
Stories We TellBest CinematographyWho Will and Should Win:
Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki
The Dark Horse:
Inside Llewyn Davis, Bruno Delbonnel
Shoulda Been a Contender:
12 Years a Slave, Sean Bobbitt
Best Production DesignWho Will Win:
GravityWho Should Win:
The Great GatsbyBest Costume DesignWho Will Win:
American HustleWho Should Win:
The Great GatsbyBest Film EditingWho Will and Should Win:
GravityBest Make-Up & HairstylingWho Will Win:
Dallas Buyers ClubThe Dark Horse:
Jackass Presents: Bad GrandpaBest Original ScoreWho Will Win:
Gravity, Steven Price
Who Should Win:
Her, William Butler and Owen Pallett
Shoulda Been a Contender:
Short Term 12, Joel P. West
Best Original SongWho Will Win: "Let It Go,
FrozenWho Should Win: "Happy" by Pharrell Williams,
Despicable Me 2Best Sound EditingWho Will Win:
GravityBest Sound MixingWho Will Win:
GravityShoulda Been a Contender:
RushBest Visual EffectsWho Will and Should Win:
Gravity
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as well), I expect we'll be seeing her for a long time to come. I hope she takes it.
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hitting the A-list. Much like the supporting male category, this one's a shoe in. Mo'nique is going to take it. It's hard to argue that her fiery performance in Precious is the film's best quality, although for me it was more that we were shocked to see her playing somebody other than a sassy clown. If awards were given out for being hot, Penelope Cruz would've won this thing six months ago. She is absolutely gorgeous in Nine, even if her musical number falls flat. Gyllenhall is on this list because she's such a stalwart, even though her actual role was pretty flimsy. My pick would be Vera Farmiga, who's back and forth with George Clooney was charged with so much sexual energy that it was almost palpable.
(2009): Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
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